Now that the final international break of the year has been and gone, we have domestic football every weekend (weather permitting) through to March when the play-offs for the final places at Euro 2020 will take place. Liverpool remain top of the Premier League with an eight-point lead over Leicester while defending champions Manchester City are fourth, nine points off Jurgen Klopp’s Reds. Charlie Mullan assesses this weekend’s games which could be worth considering when putting those important accumulators together.
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Over 2.5 & BTTS between Blackburn and Barnsley
Barnsley (33/10) travel to Ewood Park to face a Blackburn (4/5) side that will feel they are flying too close to the relegation zone in the Championship with only 18 points from their 16 matches played so far this season. Barnsley are the only team in the division yet to get to double figures in terms of points won and they go into the fixture two points behind Stoke who beat them 4-2 in Michael O’Neill’s first game in charge of the Potters. It was the eighth successive Championship in which both Barnsley and their opponents had found the back of the net, and all but one of those games have seen a total of three or more total goals scored.
Rovers’ 2-1 loss at Leeds a fortnight ago was their third consecutive game in which BTTS has landed and the eighth in their last nine. Five of Blackburn’s last six league game have seen over 2.5 total goals scored which makes it all the more likely BTTS and over 2.5 total goals will occur in this fixture. Both teams to score and over 2.5 total goals being scored is currently priced at evens with SportPesa. Blackburn are 29/20 to win and at least three total goals scored and 21/10 to win with goals for both them and the Tykes who are 7/2 to win with a minimum of three total goals scored and 6/1 to win with BTTS landing.
BTTS: Arsenal v Southampton, Swansea v Millwall, Carlisle v Cambridge
Arsenal (1/2) host Southampton (5/1) with the Gunners eight points off fourth place and nine points clear of Saints who sit a worrying 19th in the Premier League. Arsenal’s 1-1 draw with Wolves in their last league game played at the Emirates is one of five of Arsenal’s last six games to see goals for both Unai Emery’s side and their opponents in all competitions. The North London side are without a win in their last four league outings and a failure to win this game will see the pressure on Emery intensify.
Southampton are without a league win in their last seven since beating Sheffield United 1-0 at Bramhall Lane on September 14. Six of Saints’ last seven games in all competitions have seen BTTS land and with three of the last four meetings between the two sides seeing goals for both sides, there is a good chance it will happen in this fixture. The Gunners are 8/5 with SportPesa to win with goals for both them and Southampton who are 17/2 to win with BTTS landing. A score draw, like the 1-1 draw at St Mary’s in December 2017, is trading 15/4.
Swansea (1/1) and Millwall (29/10) meet at the Liberty Stadium with the Swans hoping to claim the win that will keep them in the mix for automatic promotion at the top of the Championship. Swansea went into the international break four points behind leaders West Brom while the Lions are seven points off the top six and seven points clear of the relegation zone. Swansea dropped two points in their last league game, but it could so easily have been three before Ben Wilmot rescued a point with a 94th minute equaliser.
It was the seventh time in the last nine games involving the Welsh side that BTTS has landed. At the same time, Millwall claimed all three points by beating Charlton 2-1 at the Den. The Lions winner was scored in injury time by Matt Smith so it might be a long wait to see if this bet lands. Eight of the last nine games Millwall have played, including the last four away from home, have seen goals for both them and the team they have been playing. Swansea are 3/1 to pick up all three points with at least one goal for Millwall who are 13/2 to win and BTTS landing. A score draw is trading at 33/10.
After three successive away games, Carlisle (7/5) get to host a game with Cambridge (37/20) the visitors to Brunton Park. Carlisle’s last five games including their last three in League Two have seen goals for both them and their opponents. Last weekend, Carlisle took a first minute lead at Port Vale, but they were unable to hold on for victory and were beaten 2-1 with Vale’s winner coming in the 83rd minute.
Cambridge’s last two league games have ended in a 2-1 scoreline with the U’s wining at home to Crawley and losing last weekend’s clash at Walsall. A 2-1 win for Cambridge is priced at 19/2 with SportPesa while a win for Carlisle by the same score is available at 33/4. The home side are 33/10 to win and BTTS to land while Cambridge are 4/1 to win with goals for both sides. A score draw is trading at 3/1. The last four meetings have seen BTTS occur which is why there is a good chance it could happen again in this game.
Over 2.5 goals: Manchester City v Chelsea, Southend v Oxford, Swindon v Mansfield
When Chelsea (6/1) pack their kit to play a league game away from Stamford Bridge, the kit person has made sure they have packed some goals in with their equipment. In their last five away games the Blues have played, there has been a total of 26 goals with over 2.5 total goals scored in each of them. This weekend, they face a Man City (10/23) team who have been scoring goals for fun in all competitions. Five of City’s six league games played at the Etihad have seen three or more total goals scored which makes this fixture one of the game’s most likely to see a minimum of three total goals.
City are priced at 4/5 with SportPesa to win this game with at least three total goals scored between the two sides. Frank Lampard’s visitors are 17/2 to win with over 2.5 total goals scored and continue their impressive recent that has seen them climb to third in the league. A draw and over 2.5 total goals is available at 19/2. Tammy Abraham is second on this season’s list of leading scorers in the Premier League with 10 which is one behind Leicester’s Jamie Vardy. Abraham is 11/2 to open the scoring at the Etihad and the young England forward is 7/4 to be an anytime scorer. For City, Sergio Aguero, who is one goal behind Abraham, leads the market at 14/5 to be the first on the scoresheet and 20/27 to score at any time.
Southend (4/1) take on Oxford (10/17) at Roots Hall hoping they can bring an end to their dismal run of form that has seen them take just one point from their last eight games. They are sitting 23rd in the table and staring relegation in the face. Oxford are flying high with 21 points from their last nine games. However, they find themselves seventh in the table but they should be able to get the win without too much fuss, and with goals too.
Six of Oxford’s last seven league games have seen over 2.5 total goals scored while five of Southend’s last seven League One games have produced three or more total goals scored. Over 2.5 total goals is available at 5/8 with Southend priced at 13/2 to win this game with at least three total goals scored. Oxford are a generous 6/5 to win this game with a minimum of three total goals scored. A score draw and over 2.5 total goals is available at 21/2.
Swindon (11/10) welcome Mansfield (51/20) to the County Ground with the Robins looking to stay top of League Two. Swindon have a two-point lead over Forest Green after winning their last four games. And the last three of those wins have seen three or more total goals netted. Last weekend, Richie Wellens’ side recovered from going a goal down in the fourth minute to win 3-2 at Salford with three of the total goals coming from the penalty spot.
Mansfield’s 0-0 draw at Macclesfield last weekend was the first game in six for the Stags that did not see three or more total goals scored. Of the 18 league games Swindon have played 11 have seen three or more total goals scored and 10 of the 18 games Mansfield have played this term have seen over 2.5 total goals land. Swindon are 2/1 to make it five wins in a row and with three or more total goals scored while the visitors are 19/4 to take home the three points with over 2.5 total goals scored.
A £10 bet on the BTTS accumulator has potential returns of £53.76
A £10 bet on the over 2.5 total goals accumulator has potential returns of £45.15