For the first time since 2005, there will be a British name engraved on the European Super Cup in Istanbul but which name will it be? Europa League winners Chelsea (9/2) take on Liverpool (10/17) who were crowned champions of Europe for a sixth time after beating Tottenham 2-0 in June’s Champions League final. Liverpool were the last English side to win the Super Cup when they beat CSKA Moscow 3-1 after extra-time in 2005. This will be the sixth time the Super Cup will be contested by two teams from the same country with the previous five all-Spanish affairs including four of the last five.
That highlighted La Liga’s dominance in European competitions in recent years but with all four finalists in last season’s two major European competitions, the Premier League can boast of being the most dominant league in Europe. So what can we expect from this encounter? Charlie Mullan has analysed all 21 European Super Cups since 1998 when the fixture was reduced to one leg to find out which bets offer the best value.
Liverpool to win and BTTS @ 19/10
The European Super Cup is a showcase event for UEFA as the Champions League and Europa League winners battle it out for the first European piece of silverware of the season. Both teams have scored in 61.9 per cent of the Super Cup finals since 1998 and it has happened in six of the last seven including the last four. BTTS in this year’s decider is on the market with SportPesa at 2/3 with Liverpool 19/10 to win and both teams scoring which is how they opened their Premier League account at home to Norwich to kick-off the new season of the Premier League.
Frank Lampard’s first game in charge of Chelsea turned into a nightmare after losing 4-0 at Manchester United on Sunday and the Blues are 15/2 to bounce back with a win in Istanbul with goals for both sides. Both sides usually score when they face each other with the eventuality happening in 16 of their last 21 meetings with a 1-1 draw the most common scoreline in those fixtures. A 1-1 draw after 90 minutes, which was the score when Liverpool travelled to Stamford Bridge last season, is trading at 23/4. A score draw of any kind is available at 7/2.
BTTS and over 2.5 goals @ 1/1
The last four Super Cups have seen both sides score and a total of 19 goals scored at an average of 4.75 per game and with the forwards on display in this fixture, there is a very good chance goals will flow. Over 4.5 goals is trading with SportPesa at 7/2, and while that might be asking a bit too much to ask for, over 2.5 goals is available at 20/31 and over 3.5 goals is on the market at 8/5.
Istanbul holds good memories for Liverpool as it was there where they pulled off their miracle to come from 3-0 down at half-time to AC Milan to win the 2004/05 Champions League final on penalties. But that was at the Ataturk Olympic Stadium, not Besiktas Park which will host this match. Liverpool are 6/5 to win with at least three goals scored while the Blues are a generous 7/1 to win and over 2.5 total goals scored. Odds of 39/4 are available for a draw and over 2.5 goals scored.
Chelsea will be keen to start the game on the front foot and put their Old Trafford defeat behind them and the Stamford Bridge side are 19/10 to open the scoring while Jurgen Klopp’s side are 10/13 to score the first goal. With important Premier League fixtures coming up this weekend for both sides, the last thing either side wants is for the game to go into extra-time and the possibility of a penalty shootout. Liverpool are 20/67 to win the trophy either in normal time, after extra-time or after a penalty shoot-out while Chelsea are 12/5 to lift the trophy one way or the other.
Salah to score first @ 7/2
Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah tops the goalscoring market at 7/2 to be the game’s first scorer against the team he played for between January 2014 and August 2016. He wasn’t as prolific then as he has been for Liverpool in recent seasons with just a handful of goals during his time at Stamford Bridge. Since joining the Reds in the summer of 2017, Salah has scored in both Liverpool’s home league games against his former club and like any good striker, he will want to get on the scoresheet again.
Salah opened the scoring for Liverpool in the second minute of their Champions League victory over Spurs in June. The Egyptian is also 6/5 to be an anytime scorer, 5/1 to score two or more goals and 18/1 to score a hat-trick. Chelsea hit the woodwork twice at Old Trafford but were unable to find a way of beating David de Gea. Olivier Giroud came off the bench for the final 24 minutes, but he was unable to get a goal for the Blues. The World Cup winner scored 11 of his 13 Chelsea goals last season in their Europa League run, including the opener against Arsenal in the final in Baku. Giroud is 8/1 to open the scoring in Istanbul and 11/4 to be an anytime scorer. SportPesa are offering odds of 18/1 for the Frenchman to score two or more goals and 100/1 to score a hat-trick.